Indiana 11 GS
Kentucky 8 S
Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the parts of the states that are in the Eastern time zone will end voting ahead of the rest of the country. President Bush should win both states, but compare the percentage of the vote being won by John Kerry this year with Al Gore's numbers from four years ago (41% in Indiana, 41.4% in Kentucky). If Mr. Kerry is doing better than Mr. Gore did in any state, it could be a sign that the vaunted Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts are bearing fruit.
Kentucky will also be an early warning indicator of whether the GOP could lose control of the Senate. Sen. Jim Bunning has been plagued with verbal gaffes and he will likely win by six points or less over Democrat Dan Mongiardo. If Mr. Bunning trails, it will be a long night for the GOP in the Senate.
In the House, Kentucky has one barn-burner of a race. Republican Anne Northup has held a Democratic district that includes Louisville for four terms, always winning with less than 53%. If she has a tighter race or loses this time, it will an all-smiles night for Democrats.
Republicans haven't won a governor's race in Indiana since 1984, and this year they face a Democratic incumbent, Joseph Kernan. If former Bush budget chief Mitch Daniels can win here, it will provide a good portent for the GOP and show that an association with the Bush economic record is no handicap. In Indiana, the key House race is in the Ninth District (the Bloomington area). Democratic Rep. Baron Hill could lose to Republican Mike Sodrel. A Sodrel win will indicate the GOP is likely to gain House seats this year. The Hoosier State's Senate race is a foregone conclusion; Evan Bayh cruises to re-election
By Bush budgetchief Mitch Daniels
Kentucky 8 S
Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the parts of the states that are in the Eastern time zone will end voting ahead of the rest of the country. President Bush should win both states, but compare the percentage of the vote being won by John Kerry this year with Al Gore's numbers from four years ago (41% in Indiana, 41.4% in Kentucky). If Mr. Kerry is doing better than Mr. Gore did in any state, it could be a sign that the vaunted Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts are bearing fruit.
Kentucky will also be an early warning indicator of whether the GOP could lose control of the Senate. Sen. Jim Bunning has been plagued with verbal gaffes and he will likely win by six points or less over Democrat Dan Mongiardo. If Mr. Bunning trails, it will be a long night for the GOP in the Senate.
In the House, Kentucky has one barn-burner of a race. Republican Anne Northup has held a Democratic district that includes Louisville for four terms, always winning with less than 53%. If she has a tighter race or loses this time, it will an all-smiles night for Democrats.
Republicans haven't won a governor's race in Indiana since 1984, and this year they face a Democratic incumbent, Joseph Kernan. If former Bush budget chief Mitch Daniels can win here, it will provide a good portent for the GOP and show that an association with the Bush economic record is no handicap. In Indiana, the key House race is in the Ninth District (the Bloomington area). Democratic Rep. Baron Hill could lose to Republican Mike Sodrel. A Sodrel win will indicate the GOP is likely to gain House seats this year. The Hoosier State's Senate race is a foregone conclusion; Evan Bayh cruises to re-election
By Bush budgetchief Mitch Daniels
