Republican seats: Alaska, Colorado, Oklahoma.
Democratic seats: Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota.
In addition, Republicans are worried about Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky, but he is likely to survive a lackluster re-election effort with about 53% of the vote. National trends do not much affect Senate races, unless there is a big turnout-induced shift from the presidential race.
I predict that Democrats will pick up seats in Alaska and Colorado but fall short in Oklahoma. Democrats will lose the mother of all Senate battles in South Dakota, but only after several days of recounts and court battles. They will also lose in Louisiana, which has not voted for a Republican senator since Reconstruction. But the GOP will have to wait until next month because its candidate, Rep. David Vitter, will fall short of the 50% showing he needs on Tuesday to avoid a runoff. The GOP will also narrowly pick up seats in Florida and North Carolina, along with South Carolina, where Democrats never really had a chance to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Ernest ''Fritz'' Holllings in what is now one of the most strongly Republican states in the country. The seat will symbolically shift from the Senate's leading protectionist to Jim DeMint, who has been an outspoken advocate of free trade during his House tenure. So that's five seats shifting from Democratic to Republican, and three shifting the other way, leaving us with 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 1 Independent, and the Louisiana December runoff another likely Republican pickup.
In the House, The Republicans will retain control regardless of who wins the presidency. The GOP starts the election with 229 seats; the Democrats have 205 seats and there is one independent (again from Vermont). I think the Republicans will gain a net gain of five seats and wind up with a 234-200 majority. The entire GOP gain will come from a successful gerrymander of Texas' congressional map, orchestrated by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.
We've listed states that went for George W. Bush four years ago in red and those that went for Al Gore in blue, followed by the state's electoral vote count and letters indicating governor and senate races, with the incumbent party in the appropriate color. For example, ''Vermont 3 GS'' indicates that the Green Mountain State went for Al Gore in 2000 and has a governor's race with a Republican incumbent and a Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.
By Republican seats: Alaska
Democratic seats: Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota.
In addition, Republicans are worried about Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky, but he is likely to survive a lackluster re-election effort with about 53% of the vote. National trends do not much affect Senate races, unless there is a big turnout-induced shift from the presidential race.
I predict that Democrats will pick up seats in Alaska and Colorado but fall short in Oklahoma. Democrats will lose the mother of all Senate battles in South Dakota, but only after several days of recounts and court battles. They will also lose in Louisiana, which has not voted for a Republican senator since Reconstruction. But the GOP will have to wait until next month because its candidate, Rep. David Vitter, will fall short of the 50% showing he needs on Tuesday to avoid a runoff. The GOP will also narrowly pick up seats in Florida and North Carolina, along with South Carolina, where Democrats never really had a chance to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Ernest ''Fritz'' Holllings in what is now one of the most strongly Republican states in the country. The seat will symbolically shift from the Senate's leading protectionist to Jim DeMint, who has been an outspoken advocate of free trade during his House tenure. So that's five seats shifting from Democratic to Republican, and three shifting the other way, leaving us with 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 1 Independent, and the Louisiana December runoff another likely Republican pickup.
In the House, The Republicans will retain control regardless of who wins the presidency. The GOP starts the election with 229 seats; the Democrats have 205 seats and there is one independent (again from Vermont). I think the Republicans will gain a net gain of five seats and wind up with a 234-200 majority. The entire GOP gain will come from a successful gerrymander of Texas' congressional map, orchestrated by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.
We've listed states that went for George W. Bush four years ago in red and those that went for Al Gore in blue, followed by the state's electoral vote count and letters indicating governor and senate races, with the incumbent party in the appropriate color. For example, ''Vermont 3 GS'' indicates that the Green Mountain State went for Al Gore in 2000 and has a governor's race with a Republican incumbent and a Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.
By Republican seats: Alaska
